Amidst a scenario where global almond production is surging, a notable uptick in almond prices is on the horizon for the next 12 to 18 months. The dip in production through 2022 and 2023, combined with a resurgence in worldwide demand, is poised to push ending stocks to a four-year nadir.
This scenario, characterized by a lean carry-in into 2024, is laying the groundwork for a potential recalibration of prices at more robust levels. While almond output is projected to scale new heights in the ensuing five years, so too are domestic and international shipments expected to increase. The slashing of Indian tariffs is notably propelling export vigor for both the US and Australia. Furthermore, the almond market's momentum is bolstered by health and plant-based dietary trends, ascending incomes, subdued inflation, and vigorous marketing campaigns, although it faces challenges such as geopolitical tensions, logistical hurdles, and the unpredictability of energy costs, not to mention the intensifying competition within the tree nut sector.
Source: research.rabobank.com